It’s that time again, when all of the pundits and analysts weigh in with their predictions for the new year, and, as we leave “the aughts” behind, the new decade. The past two weeks have been chockablock with best of/worst of ‘09 lists, events of the year, people of the year, etc. (Time magazine’s choice for Person of the Year for 2009, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, actually ties in very nicely with Futures’ January Markets piece, “Interest rate policy: Under pressure.”) The consensus among many pundits is that the coming decade HAS to be better than the one we’re leaving behind. Continue reading ‘Drama ahead in 2010?’ »

By now you have all heard that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the recession is probably over following a speech last week.

Those words probably don’t mean a lot to those who have lost their jobs or those who will soon lose their jobs as the economy continues to shed jobs, albeit at a slower pace than in the heart of this recession.

Continue reading ‘Ben, put your rep where your mouth is’ »

Most of the experts we interviewed for our July Markets Story, “Economic Recovery: Running on Empty” painted the economic picture as bleak, but predicted a possible recovery, albeit closer to 2010. In the meantime, interest rates are set to go up, inflation is on the rise, and the jobs outlook for the rest of the year is, according to the analysts we spoke to, either “awful” or “lousy”…take your pick. While making the overarching case to add gold and silver to your portfolio, Louis James, senior editor at Casey Research, uses another colorful anecdote to describe the economy: a zombie wearing lipstick.

Continue reading ‘Zombie economy’ »

At the risk of sounding like the black cloud in the room, I am amazed at what I am reading regarding yesterday’s Federal Reserve’s statement following its April Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.

We noted here yesterday how we were a little confused with the positive response to the poor Gross Domestic Product report showing back to back quarterly GDP declines of greater than 6% for the first time in more than 50 years.

Then yesterday afternoon the Fed released its statement. The Fed kept the target Fed Funds rate between zero and 0.25% and noted they would continue buying debt at the levels set at its previous meeting (some had expected/hoped they would increase purchases of Treasuries).

Continue reading ‘Black cloud’ »

It wasn’t a good year for Freddie Mac and one could rightfully challenge its accounting methods based on the problems it has encountered in the last year but the Office of the Chief Economist at Freddie Mac released its 2009 Economic and Housing Market Outlook recently and their forecasts deserve a look.

While the outlook calls for the U.S. to officially pull out of the recession in the third quarter of 2009, it also predicts unemployment to continue to rise peaking at 8.7% in the fourth quarter and remaining above current levels through 2010.

Continue reading ‘No jobs recovery in sight’ »

Reading economic data is much more difficult when you have to rely on media based market alerts instead of a simple ticker reporting the real numbers. When I worked on the floor the number would flash: non-farm payrolls were up/down X, the unemployment rate was Y, hourly earnings grew/fell by Z%. We knew what the expectations were and how the numbers fell in comparison to expectations.

Now we get unsolicited analysis in front of the actual numbers and often are left wondering, ‘but what were the actual numbers?’ When we scroll down the story deep enough we find them and think ‘why didn’t you say that in the first place’ and often are left wondering if what we are getting is analysis or spin.

Continue reading ‘Heads, buy the market; tails, buy the market’ »